Basic Run



Scenario Mean Proportion of Chickens Lost Mean Proportion of Farms Infected Mean Duration of Epidemic (days) Mean Exposure Index Proportion of Simulations that Failed to Spread
Base Scenario 0.0964127 0.0998200 36.08100 0.0004667 0.28
Base Scenario - Spread Only 0.1335270 0.1366944 48.55556 0.0006463 0.00

Scalability Across Network Size
















Random Growth Run

Scenario Mean Proportion of Chickens Lost Mean Proportion of Farms Infected Mean Duration of Epidemic (days) Mean Exposure Index Proportion of Simulations that Failed to Spread
Growth in Random Farms 0.5917104 0.5740800 62.41400 0.0028588 0.202
Growth in Random Farms - Spread Only 0.7414420 0.7181328 77.50376 0.0035821 0.000


Localized Growth Run No Culling

Scenario Mean Proportion of Chickens Lost Mean Proportion of Farms Infected Mean Duration of Epidemic (days) Mean Exposure Index Proportion of Simulations that Failed to Spread
Base Scenario 0.0964127 0.0998200 36.08100 0.0004667 0.280
Base Scenario - Spread Only 0.1335270 0.1366944 48.55556 0.0006463 0.000
Growth in Random Farms 0.5917104 0.5740800 62.41400 0.0028588 0.202
Growth in Random Farms - Spread Only 0.7414420 0.7181328 77.50376 0.0035821 0.000
Localized Farm Growth 0.5127656 0.3995100 49.99800 0.0024792 0.202
Localized Farm Growth - Spread Only 0.6424679 0.4993734 61.76817 0.0031063 0.000


Clustered Growth Run with Culling

Culling Time (days) Mean Proportion of Chickens Lost Mean Proportion of Farms Infected Mean Duration of Epidemic (days) Mean Exposure Index
1 0.2908635 0.177020 33.435 0.0008672
2 0.3992773 0.279585 41.311 0.0014814
3 0.4707156 0.355515 47.513 0.0020148
4 0.4932861 0.393805 50.212 0.0023617
5 0.5103106 0.421755 51.178 0.0026519
6 0.5585069 0.466455 54.654 0.0030650
7 0.5545843 0.471915 54.165 0.0032188
8 0.5915634 0.515060 58.297 0.0035533
9 0.5874925 0.514655 58.191 0.0036713
10 0.6115625 0.539915 60.246 0.0039618
11 0.6172856 0.550085 60.986 0.0040879
12 0.6222489 0.555785 60.918 0.0042105
13 0.6376711 0.576205 63.252 0.0044178
14 0.6345393 0.573060 63.312 0.0044858
15 0.6567254 0.596925 65.635 0.0047094
16 0.6323005 0.579120 63.062 0.0045832
17 0.6619602 0.608130 66.779 0.0048735
18 0.6593961 0.604180 68.279 0.0048979
19 0.6664469 0.614625 66.938 0.0050035
20 0.6500229 0.601185 66.890 0.0049526
21 0.6498694 0.602360 66.280 0.0049984